Inflation eases into target band – rate cuts on the horizon

Australia’s inflation rate continues to cool, with the monthly consumer price index (CPI) indicator rising 2.1% in the 12 months to May 2025 – the lowest annual rate since October 2024, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

 The trimmed mean inflation rate – which excludes the most volatile price movements to provide a clearer view of underlying trends – eased to 2.4% in May, down from 2.8% in April. This is the lowest reading since November 2021 and reflects a broad-based slowdown in price growth. As the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) preferred measure of inflation, the decline has increased expectations that the central bank will cut rates again when the board next meets on 8 July.

 Further supporting the case for rate cuts is the most recent GDP data from the ABS, which shows the economy grew just 0.2% in the March quarter. Concerns about the broader economic outlook, including the ongoing geopolitical tensions, are also likely to weigh on the RBA’s thinking ahead of its July meeting.

 

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